Talk:Tumbleweed/@comment-2600:1006:B157:9606:E1C:74FE:477B:5365-20190511235327/@comment-98.189.231.60-20190927180434

If you harvest 3 tumbleweeds the probability that at least one will drop a gear is 2.9701%. You can calculate this for any number of tumbleweeds: P(at least one gear) = 1 - P(no gear)^(# of tumbleweeds opened). For this case it becomes P(at least one gear) = 1 - P(0.99)^(3) = 0.029701. Then multiply by 100 to get 2.9701%. Keep in mind that this is the probability of getting a single gear after opening ALL three tumbleweeds, not the probability of getting a gear drop from a single one of the three, that is still 1%. Opening more tumbleweeds does increase your odds of seeing at least one gear drop, but it doesnt simply add. You'll always be slightly under just adding.